Source: National Post

During the depth of the financial crisis, the political appetite to rein in perceived excesses in various segments of the economy was significant. It seemed that international conferences amongst the G20 nations were being held at ever shrinking intervals promising that those deemed to be held responsible for the financial fraud would be held accountable and new regulations were sure to be implemented. The implicit message from the business community and the politicians was that lessons were learned and the same mistakes would not be repeated.

One of the most surprising things has been despite all of the upheaval, how little has changed with respect to real estate prices. From Beijing to London, real estate prices have climbed back faster than would have appeared possible only a couple of years ago. While attending the annual market forecast dinner for the local CFA society, one of the speakers on the podium asked the attendees: “Has Canada learned nothing from the United States?” This was in response to the discussion about expectations for Canadian interest rates and the incredible rebound in Canadian real estate prices.

The reason this question is so relevant is that internationally, it is thought that Canadian real estate does not suffer from the broad levels of excess that has been seen in other parts of the world. However, it is not a question of excess on the Canadian level – rather, what is happening at the regional level and just how much debt are Canadians taking on.

It would seem plain to see that the Canadian banks and the government are getting a little skittish as well. While they are careful to claim there is no Canadian real estate bubble, it might come down to a question of semantics. In the US, it can be argued that there was not an American real estate bubble – just one in Nevada, California and Florida. In Canada, it could be claimed that the bubble is only in Vancouver and the other major metropolitan centers. What we have seen is that when a large market hits turbulence, the impact is felt much further than just the epicentre of the boom.

In Canada, a significant amount of fiscal and monetary resources were committed to ensuring that the real estate market was stabilized. This helped to encourage Canadians to take on record amounts of debt and take advantage of the brief pull back in real estate prices. However, nobody seems to be asking the question “What happens if interest rates go back to normal levels?”

We are finding out that answer now as we have seen mortgage rates rise more than once within the last month alone. In addition, the federal government has begun to respond to the concerns of the banks to issue tighter guidelines for mortgage underwriting.

Some observers are now coming to the conclusion that policy makers wasted the opportunity to guide the global economy away from the debt-consumption cycle. Amazingly, the US seems to be leading the world in bringing down debt and increasing savings because consumers there felt the impact of too much debt and not enough saving more than in most nations.

As has been mentioned before in previous posts, a surprising number of Canadians assume that they are not as reckless as Americans when it comes to piling on debt. The numbers seem to be showing otherwise. Part of the reason for this debt is that incomes in Canada have been stagnating relative to rising mortgage and credit card debt.

Some of the best work produced in a long while with respect to looking at real estate prices in Canada comes from Alexandre Pestov published at the Schulich School of Business. Petrov’s analysis led him to conclude that the affordability levels in major Canadian cities – led by Vancouver – are worse than in the twenty largest metropolitan areas in the US during their boom.

In Vancouver, there seems to be a prevailing logic that “Vancouver is unique therefore prices are justified?” People in Miami or San Diego probably felt the same way a few years ago.

What makes a city unique is income, employment prospects and livability. At the elevated valuations we are seeing currently, it would appear that for prices to continue higher, Canadian real estate prices – led by Vancouver – will have to demonstrate the “Greater Fool Theory” – where sky high prices fueled by record amounts of debt can only continue if there is someone else willing to take on even more debt and pay even higher prices. This sounds like a recipe for trouble.

As James Chanos, the renowned hedge fund manager who is shorting Chinese stocks – said in a recent television interview – it is not high prices that mark the existence of a bubble but rather high levels of debt punctuated with a lack of rational behavior. In his words, China is “on the treadmill to hell”.

Likewise, for Vancouver or other Canadian cities, it cannot be said that there is a real estate bubble just because prices have run up. That logic is linear and simplistic.That is too easy a hurdle to earn the bubble label. Rather, it is the herd mentality and the belief that somehow “this time is different.” Those four words are often said to be dangerous to one’s financial well being.

Source: Globe and Mail

The Canadian Real Estate Association approved changes Monday that will give those who buy or sell their homes on its listing service more power to handle portions of the transaction on their own, but it was not enough to satisfy the Competition Commissioner.

In a move to cut off a challenge by the Competition Bureau, which feels the current system is too restrictive because anyone listing on the Multiple Listing Service must employ an agent through the entire process, the association’s members voted at its annual general meeting in Ottawa to loosen its own rules.

Now, a consumer will be able to pay an agent a flat fee – zero is not an option – to list on the MLS, where about 90 per cent of all home sales are done. Agents must now pass along a seller’s home phone number, if the seller chooses, directly to an interested buyer if asked.

“Through the proactive clarifications of the existing rules, CREA believes the concerns raised by the Competition Bureau are fully addressed,” the organization said in a news release. “At the same time, these amendments ensure the continued integrity of MLS systems and the accuracy of information on board MLS systems that Canadians have come to trust.”

The bureau disagreed, saying the change didn’t go far enough because CREA could still change the rules at any point and place more restrictions on anyone who tried to offer innovative services.

CREA wouldn’t provide further comment, with its legal counsel stating it would rather wait for the case to go before the Competition Tribunal. The association’s president, Dale Ripplinger, said the changes “wouldn’t make sense to anyone who wasn’t a real estate agent,” before abruptly calling off a news conference.

The vote was seen as a way for Canada’s real estate sales industry to satisfy concerns raised by the Competition Bureau, which has filed charges with the Competition Tribunal alleging the real estate association makes it impossible for any of its members to offer consumers fee-based services for particular portions of a transaction, such as listing on the MLS or negotiating a sale price.

This leads to higher prices for consumers, the Bureau says.

The proposed changes were a key pillar in the real estate organization’s defence before the Tribunal. The association must submit its response to the charges by March 25 and the organization hoped a strong vote from its members on the key issues troubling the Competition Bureau would be enough to have the charges set aside.

The MLS has operated for more than 50 years and only registered agents are allowed to list homes on the service. The MLS trademark is owned by CREA, and each real estate board operates the service in its region. While anyone can sell their home on their own, having a listing on the service is seen as an integral part of achieving the best sales price.

A CREA spokesperson said the changes would be implemented “as soon as it is reasonable at each local board.”

Source: CREA

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association, the number of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards declined in January 2010 from the previous month.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales dropped 2.8 per cent from near record levels reported in December. Ontario accounted for about half the national decline. Activity was also down in British Columbia, Alberta, and Manitoba, but reached new heights in Quebec.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) residential sales activity in January 2010 was up 58 per cent from year ago levels, when national home sales activity reached the lowest level in a decade. Because activity began recovering in February last year, large year-over-year gains are expected to shrink over upcoming months.

The average price of all homes sold through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards in January 2010 was $328,537, up 19.6 per cent from one year ago. In January 2009, the average residential sale price fell to the lowest level in almost three years. Year-over-year average price gains are being stretched by weakness one year ago, and are expected to shrink beginning next month.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 14.9 per cent year-over-year basis in January 2010.

The residential average price in Canada’s major markets also climbed 19.6 per cent year-over-year in January. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price, which rose 13.1 from January 2009.

Across Canada, the seasonally adjusted number of new listings on Boards’ MLS® Systems edged up threetenths of one percent on a month-over-month basis in January to reach the highest level since November 2008. New listings rose in British Columbia, Alberta and Newfoundland, offsetting declines in other provinces. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of new residential listings was up 3.4 per cent from one year ago.

“The resale housing market is becoming more balanced in a number of provinces, including my own province of Saskatchewan,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “A more balanced market is likely to result in smaller price increases going forward, with buyers in less of a rush due to an increase in supply. That said, market conditions vary across Canada, so buyers and sellers are wise to consult with a REALTOR® since they know current conditions in your local market.”

Strong demand for resale homes continues to draw down supply. There were 170,199 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of January 2010, a decline of 18 per cent from levels reported for the same month in 2009.

Nationally, there were 4.4 months of inventory in January 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is up slightly from 4.2 months in December.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in January 2010 stood at 6.6 months. This is well below where it stood one year ago (12.8 months), but slightly higher than it was in the month of January in the years 2004 through 2008. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

“January results suggest that the national resale housing market may be past the recent peak,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “One car doesn’t make a parade, so a few more months of results showing a cooling trend will be required before talk of a Canadian housing bubble begins to fade. It could take until the second half of the year before a cooling trend becomes evident, since home buying activity may continue to be accelerated in the first half of 2010 by expected interest rate increases, and by the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia on Canada Day.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

Source: Competition Bureau of Canada

The Competition Bureau announced today that it will challenge rules imposed by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) that limit consumer choice and prevent innovation in the market for residential real estate services.

The Commissioner of Competition has determined that CREA’s rules restrict the ability of consumers to choose the real estate services they want, forcing them to pay for services they do not need. The rules also prevent real estate agents from offering more innovative service and pricing options to consumers. The Commissioner’s application to the Competition Tribunal seeks to strike down these anti-competitive rules.

“Selling a home is one of the largest financial transactions that most Canadians make in their lifetime,” said Melanie Aitken, Commissioner of Competition. “Consumers should be able to choose which services they want to buy in order to facilitate that transaction, including lower-cost options. While the Bureau would have preferred to resolve this matter amicably, CREA’s leadership was unwilling to agree to changes that would have opened up competition, and offered options for consumers and real estate agents.”

The Bureau’s challenge is against rules imposed by CREA on agents who list properties on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) system. The overwhelming majority of real estate transactions in Canada make use of the MLS system, which includes important information available only to CREA members. Before listing a property on MLS, agents must agree to comply with CREA’s restrictions on the service options they provide to Canadian consumers.

For example, under CREA’s rules, agents are prohibited from offering consumers the option of simply paying a fee for an agent to list a home on the MLS system. Instead, all consumers looking to list a property on MLS must purchase a pre-determined set of additional services from a real estate agent, such as the presentation of offers and negotiation of a final deal.

“The Bureau is focused on striking down these anti-competitive rules, so that real estate agents wishing to offer innovative services can do so, and consumers can benefit from greater choice,” said Commissioner Aitken. “While the market will ultimately determine prices for residential real estate services, we expect that if the Tribunal strikes down the anti-competitive restrictions, there will be downward pressure on real estate fees in Canada.”

Once filed with the Competition Tribunal, the full text of the Bureau’s filing will be available on the Tribunal Web site.

The Competition Bureau is an independent law enforcement agency that contributes to the prosperity of Canadians by protecting and promoting competitive markets and enabling informed consumer choice.

KeyCanada.ca is pleased to announced the launch of its newest rental real estate web site – TorontoApartmentFinder.ca. Created in response to a growing demand for high quality online Canadian real estate resources, TorontoApartment.ca offers a place where tenants can search for rental accommodation.

TorontoApartmentFinder.ca offers the most complete listing of apartments and homes for rent in the GTA area. We aggregate thousands of Toronto rental listings from a large of number of online sources and then filter and compile them into one easy to use all-inclusive resource. This save the tenant a huge amount of time and, in a market with such a low vacancy rate, can give tenants an edge over other renters.

The site’s intuitive property search engine offers features such as Google Maps, a refine search bar, and the ability to save properties.

For additional information on TorontoApartmentFinder.ca please send emails to info@torontoapartmentfinder.ca or visit www.torontoapartmentfinder.ca.

About KeyCanada.ca:

KeyCanada.ca is a Kingston, Ontario based company that was founded in 2007 by two former Queen’s University students, Jason Hurd and Cormac Trainor. KeyCanada.ca launched its beta service in June 2008, with the goal of empowering Canadians with the tools and resources necessary to improve how they buy, sell, rent, or lease Canadian real estate. Although KeyCanada.ca’s services will initially be restricted to Ontario, the company plans to expand across Canada in the near future.

Source: Financial Post

A legal battle is brewing between one of the country’s largest real estate companies and Rogers Communications Inc., the owner of a new website promoting property listings across Canada.

The Financial Post has learned Century 21 Canada is suing Zoocasa Inc., which officially launched last month, for “scraping” information from sites provided by Century 21 brokers and representatives. Sources indicate privately controlled Zoocasa is nearly 100% owned by Rogers.

The move by Rogers, the largest telecommunications company in the country, into the real estate sector could have major repercussions and Century 21’s chief executive Don Lawby says he wants to ensure Zoocasa does not have an unfair competitive advantage.

In a statement of claim that lists both Rogers and Zoocasa as defendants, Century 21 says photographs and descriptions of properties have been taken from listings in British Columbia without permission.

“I am opposed to anybody taking, just independently, scraping data or removing data without permission. And they are going and have gone to sites like ours, it’s our opinion, and they have taken data from our sites and put it on theirs. We have spent millions of dollars and an exorbitant amount of effort to get that data on to our sites,” says Mr. Lawby. “I wouldn’t go to Re/Max’s site and scrape data off it and put it on mine.”

Rogers spokesman Jan Innes said her company has little to say on the issue because “the matter is before the courts. We will defend ourselves as we don’t agree with Century 21’s perspective on this.”

Mr. Lawby said his brokers have asked that their data be removed and Zoocasa has not complied. The statement of claim maintains that by taking the information from Century 21 sites, Zoocasa has infringed on copyright.

Century 21, according to the statement of claim, is also demanding that Zoocasa seek prior permission before providing any hyperlink to any of real estate listings on websites run by its brokers.

With some fanfare, Zoocasa launched in August promising to change “the way Canadians search for homes” and as a stunt included as its featured listings the Rogers Centre, the home of the Toronto Blue Jays who are owned by the telecommunications company.

Saul Colt, Zoocasa’s self-described “head of magic” who runs the marketing side of the site, says there is no intent to compete with the real estate industry which controls about 90% of the market through its Multiple Listing Service.

“We see ourselves as a complimentary site. MLS is the gold standard and the best place to go if you’re looking for pure listings,” says Mr. Colt. “We feel like we’re the best place to go for all the information that goes into your decision process.”

Zoocasa is providing information about such things as the history of the neighborhoods, schools, retailers as well as access to the actual property listings.

Mr. Colt said no data has been taken from the mls.ca or realtor.ca site but the information is gleamed by “scouring the Internet” for listings. “Just like Google, once you get the information we actually kick you out of our site and deliver you to the source of the information. You do the filtering and searching on our site,” he said.

While Zoocasa’s first order of business is to drive revenue through advertising on the site, Mr. Colt said long-term plans call for making money off agents. “We do have plans to introduce a lot of realtor tools, than we can charge for subscription,” he said.

At Century 21, there is little doubt in the minds of officials that the Rogers website is taking dead aim at the real estate industry.

“It’s huge,” said Mr. Lawby, about the competitive threat. “If any company is able to gather data without the co-operation of the owner of the data, then it’s an unfair advantage.” He added that “if somebody like Rogers” can collect information without any expense it will have a commercially worthwhile project and be able to take on the MLS system.

Gary Simonsen, chief operations officer of the Canadian Real Estate Association which controls the rights to MLS system and realtor.ca, said officials did meet with Zoocasa representatives.

Zoocasa officials were told “it’s up to individual boards to promote and advertise their listings,” said Mr. Simonsen. He was clear in his opinion that it would be illegal for anybody to scrape information off the realtor.ca site. Zoocasa and Rogers are not accused of doing that.

University of Ottawa law professor Michael Geist says while there may some debate about what information you can take from a competitor’s real estate site and post on your own, he doubts any court will listen to an argument banning a hyperlink.

“There have been any number of attempts to invoke requirements to obtain permission in order to link but the courts have been reluctant to uphold that. The whole web is dependent on links,” says Mr. Geist.

Source: Globe and Mail

Despite July’s slight slip in housing starts, economists point out plenty of reasons for optimism

1) Housing starts are expected to rise

While the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts decreased to 132,000 units in July from 137,000 units in June, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says starts statistics – which mark the actual, shovel-in-the-ground beginning of construction – are expected to improve throughout 2009.

The reason?

“Over the next several years, housing starts will gradually become more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year,” CMHC said.

How solid is this foundation? Economists’ opinions are mixed.

BMO economist Robert Kavcic said July results indicate a rain delay, rather than a reversal. Unseasonably soggy weather caused “a puddle on the road to recovery,” he said.

However, Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Pascal Gauthier noted that the July results, which were dragged down by fewer starts in the condominium sector, were below expectations.

“The latest data for July is yet another warning that extrapolating the bounce back from [the earlier] extreme lows further out can be overly optimistic,” Mr. Gauthier wrote.

2) Building permits have bounced higher (more…)

In July 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported a record 9,967 sales, up 28 per cent from July 2008. The average price for July transactions was $395,414 – up by six per cent compared to the same month last year.

“Households confident in their positioning within the current economic environment have taken advantage of housing affordability in the GTA,” said TREB President Tom Lebour. “The real estate sector has been one of the sectors making a positive contribution to economic growth in the GTA, not to mention Ontario and Canada more broadly.”

Year-to-date sales, at 50,632 are down 1.2 per cent compared to the first seven months of 2008. Average price, at $385,808 is down by less than one-half of one per cent.

“The steep drop-off in sales experienced at the beginning of the year has all but dissipated,” explained Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “With five months left to
go in the year, it is probable that total existing home sales in 2009 will be at or above last year’s level.”

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

An increase in sales across Canada and is the best sign yet that the country’s real estate market is well on its way to recovery.

Amid the month-to-month torrent of real estate statistics, economists pegged particular significance on new numbers because they reveal widespread strength at strong prices and showed mounting momentum over a three-month span, carried by what had been the weakest region – the West.

It’s a radically stark contrast with the United States, where prices – after three long years – are still falling, down a third from their bubble peak.

In Canada, buyers are back, sales are surging, and prices are edging up.

“People thought the world was coming to an end,” said Mr. Stewart, a top-selling agent at his Century 21 office near False Creek in downtown Vancouver. “Now, the fiscal stimulus and ultralow interest rates have supercharged real estate.”

Almost 150,000 sales of existing houses and condominiums were tallied in the April-May-June period, according to Canadian Real Estate Association data published Tuesday. It was the fourth-best quarter ever since CREA began recording the sales data in 1994, the industry marketing group said.

Economists and brokers credit the low interest rates and, in hot markets such as Vancouver, somewhat lower house prices. Another key factor is pent-up demand from buyers who icily avoided major purchases during what seemed like an unfolding economic apocalypse in the fall and winter.

Nationally, for the April-June period, sales were up 1.4 per cent from a year ago. It was the first quarter that marked a year-over-year advance since late 2007, and the period strengthened as the spring warmed. In June, sales were up 22.8 per cent nationally – and prices climbed 4 per cent. In Toronto, the sales jump was 27.4 per cent, with prices up 2 per cent.

Sales of existing houses are predicted to stay steady, rather than keep surging, a new-found balance between boom and bust.

“Sales activity is not going to return to very low levels,” said Gregory Klump, economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association.

“By and large, sales activity will remain strong. I just don’t anticipate that these increases are going to play out month over month over the rest of the year the way they have in the last few.”

Source: Globe & Mail

The building of the Yellow Treehouse Restaurant , 10 meters up a redwood tree in a New Zealand forest, was an integrated marketing campaign done for the New Zealand Yellow Pages. A non-professional was chosen to get it built, using only the Yellow Pages. The ad campaign just won a Silver Integrated Lion Award.

Realtors are you doing something no one else is doing?  Are you using the online channels available to get you noticed?

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